CAN ERIN SCHOOLS ACCOMMODATE POPULATION GROWTH?

POPULATION EXPECTED TO REACH 26,300 BY 2051

With new development underway, the town of Erin expects to welcome thousands of families. But does the community have enough resources to handle mass migration? The Erin Advocate investigates whether more schools, particularly a second high school, is required.

Catherine Thacker has two sons. Gordie is three-and-a-halfyears-old and Lachy is 11 months. They moved to Erin from Georgetown and previously lived in Toronto.

She finds schools in town are too small.

"It's a tiny high school," said Thacker. "We definitely need more infrastructure like that. I

think it's needed. Development is coming, there is no doubt about that."

The Upper Grand District School Board (UGDSB) expects several schools to have a high enrolment due to new development planned for the community. It projects Erin, Centre Wellington, Shelburne, and Grand Valley to be high-growth areas until 2051.

Officials for the board are preparing for an influx of students by developing a long-term accommodation plan (LPAT). Plans show Erin, in particular, is expected to outpace neighbouring municipalities as schools can reach capacity in less than a decade.

"The enrolment tables provided in the LTAP report show that the elementary schools in the Town of Erin are projected to be full by approximately 2030 to 2031," said Megan Sicoli, administrative officer of communications for the board. "Given the uncertainty in projecting future enrolment, projections are reviewed annually, and significant changes are discussed in the annual LTAP report. The current projection shows that we will have a need for additional elementary school capacity in the Erin and Hillsburgh area in the next eight years."

Erin currently has Erin Public School, Brisbane Public School, St. John Brebeuf Catholic School, Belfountain

Public School and Ross R. MacKay Public School. Students there are expected to attend Erin District High School or elsewhere. Catholic students usually attend St. James Catholic High School in Guelph.

"I really do think we need to get on that because people are already being shipped out," said Thacker. "If you're Catholic, you've got to go to Guelph anyways. We really need to start thinking about that because we can't just ship these kids out like everywhere else."

The County of Wellington expects the population in communities, particularly Erin, to explode, doubling the number of residents.

"Recent growth management work completed by the county, through the ongoing county official plan review, forecasts that the town of Erin will reach a population of approximately 26,300 people by 2051," said Sarah Wilhelm, manager of policy planning. "This is an increase of 14,300 people over its 2021 population forecast of 12,000. Growth forecasts for the Town of Erin were influenced by the town's decision to proceed with the establishment of a new municipal wastewater treatment facility to service Erin Village and Hillsburgh. This level of infrastructure investment created opportunities for urban development that would not have otherwise existed in the town."

The county experienced growth in preschool and school-age children between 2016 and 2021, in the five- to nine-year-old, and 10- to 14-year-old groups. Thacker wants her children to stay in town throughout their adolescent years.

"I want my boys to be stationed and continue seeing their friends from elementary to high school," said Thacker. "But we need the high schools."

The school board has no plans to establish a secondary high school in town despite the fact some children are already shipped out to Guelph and projections show an increase in students calling Erin home.

"According to current enrolment projection in the LTAP report, there is room at Erin DHS in the next few years," said Sicoli. "Although the enrolment projection for Erin DHS in the LTAP report shows that the school is projected to be full by around 2030 to 2031, overall, there is greater flexibility in secondary capacity given that not all students are at school full time."

STORY BEHIND THE STORY: As the town of Erin expects to welcome more families, reporter Joshua Santos was curious to research whether more schools, particularly a high school, would be required as the population is projected to boom and as children already are sent to high school in Guelph.