RISE IN COVID HOSPITALIZATION PROJECTED

Lower uptake of vaccines than expected in Hamilton has prompted an increase in the number of residents predicted to be hospitalized with COVID over the course of the fall.

Scarsin Forecasting has upped its estimate of COVID hospitalizations to 495 from Aug. 31 to Dec. 31, compared to its August prediction of 323. Just over 50 per cent of those at highest risk for severe illness from COVID — age 70 and older — have had a fourth shot. Among children age six months to four years, fewer than five per cent have had a first dose.

Children age five to 11 became eligible for a third shot on Sept. 1, but only 37 per cent of Hamilton kids in this age group have even had two doses.

"Predicted hospital admissions have increased as vaccination uptake has been lower than previously assumed," stated the most-recent forecast.

Scarsin predicts nearly as many Hamiltonians age 59 and younger will be hospitalized as those age 80 and older — each group accounting for about onequarter. Half of the hospitalizations are expected to be those age 60 to 79.

"Vaccination remains the most important way to protect against COVID-19 and its health effects," stated the most recent COVID update by Hamilton public health.

Bivalent boosters that target both Omicron and the original COVID virus are available to anyone age 18 and older as of Sept. 26.

Reducing severe illness from COVID is significant because the higher estimate comes at the same time hospitals have been struggling with unprecedented overcrowding, staffing shortages and backlogs.

"COVID-19 transmission in Hamilton is moderate and decreasing," stated the latest update Sept. 14. "The number of reported cases, new COVID-19 hospitalizations, test positivity, wastewater signal and number of active outbreaks have all decreased over the past two weeks."

However, the forecasting predicts the seventh wave to "greatly increase" in the fall.

"New hospital admissions ... are predicted to level off and decrease, followed by an increase in the fall and early winter as Hamiltonians move indoors and more infectious BA.5 subvariant continues to circulate," stated the forecast.